Belém, Brazil – Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a runoff after Flávio Bolsonaro surprised many observers by finishing ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round – 47% to 45%. The two will face each other in a runoff on October 25. Meanwhile, the election delivered a significant congressional shift: Brazil’s extreme-right Liberal Party (PL) will enter 2027 as the largest caucus in both chambers, holding 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 28 in the Senate.
Amazon Watch warns that the new balance of power strengthens political forces that support mining on Indigenous lands and the rollback of territorial and environmental safeguards, regardless of who wins the presidential runoff.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL increased its representation from 99 to 121 lawmakers. In the Senate, it grew from 15 to 28 members, forming the largest party caucus in the chamber since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988. For Indigenous peoples the consequences are profound. A more powerful PL Senate caucus is already advancing a proposal to open Indigenous territories to mining, currently prohibited under Brazil’s constitution.
“The Senate results are especially alarming,” said Ana Alfinito, Legal Advisor at Amazon Watch. “This is where a proposal to regulate mining on Indigenous lands is being advanced, and it is also the Senate that considers impeachment requests against Supreme Court justices. The PL alone does not have enough votes to remove a Justice, but the new balance of power increases the ability of political forces that support opening Indigenous territories to mining and confronting institutions that are fundamental to protecting constitutional rights.”
“This scenario strengthens an anti-Indigenous agenda that is already operating within the National Congress and has our territories in its sights,” said the Association of Brazil’s Indigenous Peoples (APIB) in a statement on the election results. “APIB had already warned about this risk, denouncing the growing power of sectors pushing projects against Indigenous peoples. The next political cycle will be one of intense resistance.”
APIB called on Indigenous peoples to mobilize in response to the new composition of Congress and to strengthen Indigenous representation in decision-making spaces.
State elections across the Brazilian Amazon also strengthened candidates associated with the expansion of extractive industries. In Pará state, Dr. Daniel of the Podemos party won in the first round alongside his running mate Ellayne D’Almeida (PL), an Itaituba businesswoman with ties to illegal gold-mining activities.
In Rondônia, Marcos Rogério, who serves as vice president of the Senate working group on mining on Indigenous lands, was elected governor, vacating a seat that has been a key driver of the mining push. In Roraima, Arthur Henrique (PL) also won in the first round, with a platform that includes mining as one of the state’s economic development priorities. In Amapá, Dr. Furlan of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) was elected after a campaign in which oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River emerged as a central issue, with both he and his main opponent backing investment in the sector. Governors in Acre, Amazonas, and Tocantins states will be decided in runoffs on October 25.
The election set a record for Indigenous political participation, with 191 Indigenous candidates running nationwide according to APIB, drawing on data from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). But results in the Chamber of Deputies were mixed: Sonia Guajajara won reelection with the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), while Célia Xakriabá (PSOL) and Alessandra Munduruku (PT) both lost their elections.
